KEYNOTE ADDRESS BY H.E. JAKAYA MRISHO KIKWETE, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA, AT THE ECONOMIST CONFERENCES SECOND BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF TANZANIA, HELD AT THE KILIMANJARO HOTEL KEMPINSKI, NOVEMBER 5, 2009

 

Mr. Richard Cockett, Africa Editor, The Economist

       Magazine & Chairman of this Roundtable,     

Honourable Ministers,

Permanent Secretaries and Other Government Officials,

Distinguished Participants,

Invited Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen

 

At the outset allow me to welcome you Mr. Cockett and your staff to Tanzania.  I also welcome all the distinguished participants to the Second Economist’s Business Roundtable with the Government of Tanzania. I thank the leadership of the Economist Magazine for organizing yet another conference in Tanzania and for once again inviting me to officiate its opening. 

 

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I am happy with the theme of this year’s Conference.  I find focusing on Implementing Effective Policy during the Slowdown to be both timely and appropriate. Conceiving and implementing effective policies to mitigate the impact of the current economic downturn has been the preoccupation of my government since the advent of the economic crisis close to two years now.  Indeed, it is the preoccupation of all governments the world over.   

As you are aware, Tanzania has in recent years achieved impressive economic performance, reflecting the success of sustained economic reforms and prudent macroeconomic policies.  Economic growth over the past seven years has been at an impressive annual average rate of 7.2 percent between 2002 and 2008. In 2008, economic performance was even more impressive with real GDP growth of 7.4 percent, up from 7.1 percent in 2007.   This gave us the confidence to project a 7.8 per cent growth in 2009 and 8 per cent in 2010.

However, the global financial and economic crisis has adversely impacted on our economic performance.  The demand and prices of our principal export crops, in particular cotton, coffee and horticultural produce have been weakened. Earnings from tourism and transportation (transit trade) as well as the inflow of foreign investment have been impacted negatively too. Due to these adverse impacts on the drivers of growth the projection for 2009 has been revised downwards to 5.0 percent growth as opposed to the projected 7.8 per cent.  Indeed, the deterioration of the global economy has had its roll on our economy as well.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Before the onset of global financial and economic crisis, the Tanzanian economy was already experiencing inflationary pressures due to the lagged effects of rising world petroleum and food prices earlier in the year.  As a result, annual inflation rose to 13.5 percent in December 2008.  Following the decline in world commodity prices, domestic inflation had eased to 12.1 percent by the end of September, 2009.  However, the severe food shortages in our region due to prolonged drought especially in Kenya, have kept food prices high hence keeping inflation at double digit.

Tanzania’s Response to Economic Downturn

Ladies and Gentlemen,

As we all know, Tanzania, like many countries in the world affected by the global economic crisis had to take both policy and fiscal measures to respond to the current crisis, deal with it and ensure economic recovery and growth. Countries differed in terms of the intensity and magnitude of the measures depending on the severity of the impact and the fiscal capacity to intervene. Developed countries could muster bigger financial rescue and stimulus packages while developing countries like Tanzania, could only afford something modest.  Some could not afford to do anything. 

For us in Tanzania, our policy and modest fiscal interventions were guided by the following principles and pillars:

1.    Preserving the hard-earned macroeconomic stability;

2.    Ensuring food security and employment;

3.    Ensuring the sustenance of social safety net programs;

4.    Rescuing and preserving major investments particularly in energy and infrastructure;

5.    Ensuring liquidity in the economy; and

6.    Ensuring effective governance and management of the economy, including strengthening of the surveillance and regulations of the financial sector.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen;

The economic stimulus plan we put together in June, 2009 took consideration of these objectives. The plan entailed strict surveillance of the financial institutions.  Particular attention was given to commercial banks operating in Tanzania to ensure that nothing adverse comes out of their operations, and that they are in conformity with laws and regulations. As a result, the financial system in Tanzania remains safe, stable, sound and resilient to the on-going global financial and economic crisis.

In terms of fiscal measures, we sought to compensate crop buyers for losses incurred due to fall in the demand and prices of commodities in the world market during the 2008/09 season.  We provided guarantee for rescheduling of loans, which borrowers have not been able to service and repay timely due to the crisis.  In addition we decided to provide working capital to investors at discounted rates.  Under this arrangement, the Government provides soft loans to banks which in turn lend to the most affected businesses which cannot borrow at market interest rate during the current crop season. Other measures included stabilizing government revenues and increasing capital for SMEs credit guarantee scheme and Export Credit Guarantee Scheme and ensuring food security.

Commitment to Market Economy

Mr. Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen,

I understand, that after the crisis ensued, there has been intense debate about the efficacy of the market based economic system.  Some people have openly expressed loss of faith in the system.  It is my humble view that this crisis has not come about as a result of the free market economic system per se.  I see it as a problem caused by weaknesses of regulation and oversight of the financial markets and the general disequilibrium in the global financial system.   The answer, therefore, lies with designing and putting in place effective regulatory and oversight mechanisms to monitor and regulate the global financial and economic system. 

I say this to underscore the fact that the current global economic crisis should not deter us from pursuing economic reforms and properly anchoring the private sector as the engine of growth of the Tanzanian economy.  Indeed, the crisis has reminded us of the crucial oversight role of the state in ensuring a robust regulatory environment and enforcement of standards in the financial sector. It has also reminded us of the important role Governments can play in stimulating the economy during economic downturns.

Setting Attractive Business Environment

Ladies and Gentlemen,

As a result of this crisis, global investment flows have declined and capital is currently not easily accessible. We in Tanzania have fresh memories of some investments worth billions of dollars, which have either been suspended or cancelled.  We have lost a lot.  That is why we keep on praying for speedier resolution of the crises in the development economies in the West. 

At the same time we are determined to do more internally to attract the now scarce capital to Tanzania.  We will steadfastly continue with economic reforms and take measures to improve the business environment in our country.  As we do so, we are motivated by the recent rankings in business environment by the World Bank. The ranking have unfortunately removed Tanzania from being among the top ten reforming countries in the world as was the case two years ago.  At the same time we have dropped from being number 126 in the Doing Business 2009 ranking to number 131 in the Doing Business 2010 ranking. 

I personally took the report as a matter of serious concern that demands serious action.  I convened a meeting of top officials from government ministries and agencies responsible for the areas or issued raised as being responsible for our poor rating.  We discussed the report, identified the areas where we fell short and agreed on measures to take.  We then set up a Task Force to review business and investment support policies, regulations and administrative procedures.

I have directed that the responsible people in government and the private sector should ensure that the recommendations of the Task Force are expressly implemented.  There is no time for delay and there should be no excuse from anyone for not doing his or her part of the bargain. 

Let me say, once more that, we will continue to pursue economic and financial policies that are friendly to business, favorable to the growth and development of the indigenous private sector and attractive to foreign capital. 

Delivering on Election Promises

Distinguished Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen,

          This is a fundamental election promise we made in 2005 and there will be no turning back.  So far so good, with regard to promoting economic growth, attracting FDI’s and creating jobs.  I believe had it not been for the setbacks caused by high oil and food prices shocks and the global financial and economic crises, we would have registered greater achievements.  We could, also, have been on a good growth trajectory by now. 

          Despite the odds, Tanzania managed to do well in attracting foreign direct investments than several of our neighbours in the region.  We are determined to do more.  We also managed to fulfill the promise on creating one million jobs.  Up to July, 2009 a total of 1,271,923 jobs were created.  However, the unemployment problem remains much bigger and has become more complex.  University graduates are now joining the unemployment ranks.  Unfortunately, as the problem burgeons, the world economic outlook does not look so promising.  We are challenged to look for more innovative ways of rising to the challenge.  We are trying our best.

The other, and perhaps overarching election promise is with regard to improvement in the living standards of Tanzanians.  We designed a number of programmes for improving the provision of basic social and economic services.  We have, indeed, registered encouraging successes.  Education, at all levels, is now accessible to more people as is access to health care, drinking water and electricity.  It is also evident that more roads have been built throughout the country and, there are more paved roads and rehabilitated roads easing transport problems for the people and the economy.

Agriculture First

Ladies and Gentlemen;

          We also designed programs directed at income generation.  A number of micro-finance schemes have been designed.  They seem to be working well though obviously inadequate.  Cognisant of the fact that 85 per cent of the people of Tanzania live in the rural areas and agriculture is their mainstay, we gave modernization and transformation of agriculture top priority in our governments agenda.  We designed an all embracing Agricultural Sector Development Programme (ASDP) meant to address the constraints inhibiting growth and transformation of the agricultural sector.  As a result Tanzanian agriculture has remained backward and plagued with low productivity. 

To give fillip to the efforts being expended under the ASDP, we came up with a new strategy code – named Kilimo Kwanza, meaning Agriculture First.  This is a strategy meant to increase the pace transforming our agriculture of involving the private sector in a more robust way.  Currently, the participation of the private sector is lukewarm.  With the Kilimo Kwanza spirit we want the private sector to take its rightful place as the prime mover of growth and development in agriculture as well.  We want people in the private sector to be farmers (big farmers), to supply inputs to agriculture and provide a stable and lucrative market to farm produce. 

Fight Against Corruption

Distinguished Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen;

With regard to the fight against corruption, I must admit it is a complicated and challenging one.  Nonetheless, we are making steady progress and registering some success as we proceed.  We are determined to stay the course.  We are succeeding in building institutional capacity of our anti-corruption Bureau.  Sensitisation of people to join and assist in this noble crusade seems to be working and paying dividend.  We have, now, sixteen cases of grand corruption in the courts of law which underscores our determination in this fight and how far we have come.  Our efforts are being acknowledged globally.  The recent report of Transparency International puts Tanzania ahead in the Eastern African region in the fight against corruption and so does the Mo Ibrahim Foundation Index on Governance. 

East African Community

Ladies and Gentlemen,

With regard to the East African Community, I would rightly brag that things are on course.  We have made remarkable progress so far and the prospects for the future look very promising.  As you know, in 1996, we started with cooperation among the three partner states of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. There were some few sectors which were designated for that purpose.   Three years later in 1999 a bold decision was taken to go for integration.  It was agreed on the stages to follow with the Customs Union being the entry point to be followed by the Common Market, then the Monetary Union and Political Federation being the ultimate. 

Since January, 2005 the East African Community member states have implemented the Customs Union phase with great success.  Next year, the Customs Union will reach maturity when goods from Kenya will enjoy the no-tariff facility on export to other member states.  But, as the Customs Union matures, we are surely going to graduate on to the next phase of the Common Market.  The negotiations are almost complete.  What is now being awaited is the Summit of Heads of States of the EAC for conclusion and endorsement. 

So far the community has worked well for Tanzania.  We have witnessed phenomenon increase in our trade within the East African Region to the extent that we have a trade surplus with Kenya.  This is something which almost looked unimaginable when we were negotiating the Community Treaty before 1999.  It has demonstrated in real terms that nothing is impossible.  I firmly believe that the East African Community offers great potential for Tanzania to benefit even more in the years ahead.

Conclusion

Ladies and Gentlemen,

          In concluding, let me say three things: First, in this era of anxiety about the global economy, it is important that governments are flexible and have the capacity to put in place effective policies to deal with new challenges and changing circumstances.   That is, precisely, what our government is.

Secondly, it is important that we do not let pass an opportunity to learn from what happened over the past year. After we pass through this sticky period, the most important policies will not be the ones we made during the slowdown but the ones we will design and implement to guard against the recurrence of the crisis.

          Thirdly, it is important to note that, in this globalised world, the efficacy of local policies will depend on the prevailing global environment. Sometimes the good policies we may put in place here in Tanzania, be they economic or investment policies, may simply not work because the international environment or context is not amenable or is simply unpredictable.

I suppose, therefore that, one of the questions we should ask ourselves during the discussion is to what extent can we ensure that the international context encourages the formulation of effective policies at the national level and supports the success of those policies? How can policymaking be flexible, speedy, and simple enough to ensure that policies created are in fact timely and effective? How can we build the capacity among our policymakers and strengthen our policymaking structures to enable us to see around the curve?

Mr. Chairman, Distinguished Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen,

          With those many words, I wish to, once again, thank the Economist Magazine for organizing this conference.  You have done us proud.  I wish you very successful deliberations and outcomes.

Thank you for your kind attention.